Betfair £10,000 challenge - Free Lay Bets

Nov 18

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 11:36:00 +0000

Yesterday was a fucking disaster, System f gave me all my bad days together, Oh Lordy, Lordy, patience please!

System A Lays Max Price 7.0

1:10 MR : Hard and Fast

1:40 MR : Bluegun

2:10 MR : Hockenheim

2:40 MR : Chesapeake

3:40 MR : Calzaghe

1:00 Ling : Royal Box

3:05 Clon : Footy Facts

System (f) Lays Max Price 7.0

8:20 Kem : Hypnotised

Nov 17 - Loss €54

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 07:53:00 +0000

What a fucking disaster !

Happy Birthday Wifey, getting on , mm , need to speed this up if I'm gonna retire by 50.

System A Lays (Max Price 7.0)

1:40 Folks : Pocket Aces Loss €14

3:00 Fake : Great Tsar Profit €5

3:30 Fake : Stretch the Truth Profit €3

1:50 South : Clear Ice Profit €5

System F Lays (Max Price 7.0)

12:20 South : Diamond Blade : Offer up @ 7.0 Loss €28

2:50 South : Business Class Profit €5

3:20 South : Punching : Offer up @ 7.0 Loss €30

Nov 16 - Profit €18

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:16:00 +0000

System A Lays (Max Price 7.0)

2:40 Lei : Clova Island Profit €3

12:50 Plum : Anak Loss €3

3:20 Plum : Majic Moments Profit €3

System F Lays (Max Price 7.0)

4:30 Wolv : Dubai DivaProfit €5

5:00 Wolv : Mamook Offer up @ 6.8 Profit €5

5:30 Wolv : Fine Ruler Offer up @ 6.8 Profit €5

Nov 15 - Loss €5

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 10:15:00 +0000

System A Lays Max Price 7.0

12:50 Font : Quatrz de Thaix Profit €5

2:00 Font : Amydee Loss €10

3:40 Font : Casual Garcia Loss €11

1:35 MR : Sphinx Profit €3

2:35 Mr : Aqualung Profit €3

1:35 Punch : Merchent Paddy : Offer up @ 4.2 - Macthed then Laid @ 9.0 (Free Lay)Profit €3

2:30 Cork : Last Draw : Offer up @ 6.0Profit €3

Nov 14 - Profit €10

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 11:37:00 +0000

System F Lays (Max Price 7.0)

2:00 Ling Mysic Touch Profit €5

6:50 Wolv : Lithaam Profit €5

7:20 Wolv : Vertigo On Course Non Runner

(I think because of the prices I'll do 3*Cross doubles as a saviour).

System A Lays Max Price 7.0

3:00 Punch : Jowango - Offer up @ 6.4 Not Matched

Nov 13 - Profit €10

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 06:45:00 +0000

System A Lays

4:05 Chel : Ashkazar Profit €5

8:00 Dund : San Sicharia - Offer up @ 4.2 - Not Matched

System F Lays

1:05 Ling : Whistle Blower Profit €5

Nov 12 - Profit €18

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 06:50:00 +0000

Just as we thought, shitty day yesterday, A system kicks me in the nuts as soon as I implement it.

Need to tighten up maybe, anyway keep the faith, at lease I'm not losing money (yet).

System A Lays Max Price 7.0

2:00 Lud : You and I : Profit €5

3:10 Taunt : Shut The Bar: Profit €3

12:55 Clon : Finnoegas

1:55 Clon : Back me up - Offer up @ 4.7

3:25 Clon : Hairy Molly - Offer up @ 3.6

System F Max Price 7.0

12:50 South : Straight Face: Profit €5

4:20 Wolv : Getcarter: Profit €5

Nov 11 - Loss €25

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 06:46:00 +0000

System A Max Price 7.0

2:10 Bang : Thats Rythm - Loss €31

2:40 Bang : Wilbury Star - Profit €5

3:40 Bang : Red and White - Profit €5

System F Max Price 7.0

Nothing Yet

Any Kempton Lays will be Posted below Later

System F Max Price 7.0

6:50 Kempt : Mass Rally - Loss €9

8:20 Kemp : Black or Red - Profit €5

Nov 10th

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 06:46:00 +0000

Lovely, Betfair down until 10.00 am, lloks like I'm fucked as I'll be in work a ll daya nd haven' a hope of logging on to BF,

Crap!

Nov 9th - Loss €18

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 07:02:00 +0000

OK, have tahen the plung and extended the system A lays to a max price of 7.0 with a couple of new caveats. Watch this prove to be a really shitty day !

System A Max Price 7.0 from Nov 9th

4:00 Carl : Dontpaytheferryman Loss €19

1:10 Sout : War Footing - Non Runner

4:40 Wolv : Alqaahir Profit €5

3:35 Lim : Pesoto Loss €9

System F Max Price 7.0

4:10 Wolv : Stanley Godspeed (offer up @ 7.0) Profit €5

Nov 8th - Profit €6

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 09:51:00 +0000

In a bit of a bind, the trial system is working out well, am really tempted to use it tomorrow but might wait until I have the inevitable losing day first. Even if it only breaks even it will have the positive effect of increasing my turnover and hence reducing commission faster in the long term. I wont have that many lays for system (f) as they are all flat based and don't really anticipate too many lays until March. If I average one a day I'd be happy with the (f) lays.

System A Max Price 4.5

2:30 Nav : Made in Taipan Profit €6 (Upped the stake to €6 this morning)

System F Max Price 7.0

No Qualifiers

System A Max Price 7.0 Trial Only Profit +8.75 Points (23/26) after today

2:45 FFos : Francis Du Mesnil @ 5.3 (AP) Profit 0.95 Pts

2:55 MR : Cailin Royal @ 5.3 Profit 0.95 Pts

3:25 MR : Rosie all Over @ 5.5 Profit 0.95 Pts

12:55 Nav : Noble Prince @ 2.32 Profit 0.95 Pts

Nov 7 - Loss €10

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 07:15:00 +0000

System A Max Price 4.5

12:15 Kelso : McMurrough Loss €10

System F Max Price 7.0

No Lays Qualify

System A Max Price 7.0 Trial Only Profit +4.95 Points (19/22) after today

2:25 Kelso : Palomar @ 7.0 Profit 0.95

2:15 Winc : Blue Bajan @ 6.4 Profit 0.95

3:00 Down R : Herecomes the truth @ 4.0 Loss 3.00

Nov 6 - Profit €10

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 06:42:00 +0000

System A Max Price 4.5

1:40 Font : Parlestho Profit €5

System F Max Price 7.0

No Qualifiers for today

System A Max Price 7.0 Trial Only Profit +6.15 Points (17/19) after today

1:10 Font : Forget it @ 6.2 Profit 0.95

2:10 Font : Alrafid @ 7.0 Profit 0.95

1:20 Hex : Chapel Flowers @ 2.8 Non Runner

4:00 South : Wabraan @ 5.3 Profit 0.95

Will Post Evening Lays Later if any Qualifiers

OOPs, forgot to post up a loser in Wolv later

8:50 Wolv : Capable Guest Profit €5 - Proof Below

Nov 05 - Profit €10

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 06:49:00 +0000

System A Max Price 4.5

2:25 Thur : Chelsea Harbour Profit €5

System F Max Price 7.0

3:30 Ling : Quasi Congaree Profit €5

System A Max Price 7.0 Trial Only Profit +3.30 Points (14/16) after today

12:50 Hay : Stick Together @ 5.3 Profit +0.95

1:20 Hay : Beidh Tine anseo @ 4.8 Profit +0.95

1:55 Hay : Quws Law @ 6.1 Profit +0.95

3:05 Hay : Catch Bob @ 5.0 Profit +0.95

1:30 Tow : Qualipso D'allier @ 4.8 Profit +0.95

1:10 Ling :Location @ 6.2 Profit +0.95

Nov 04 - Profit €16

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 06:46:00 +0000

Liverpool in action again tonight, any capable of predicting the score and hence the actions of Benitez the genius ?
System A Max Price 4.5

1:30 Chep : GraceChurch Profit €5

2:15 Nott : Alexandros Loss €4

7:50 Kem : Age of Reason Profit €5

8:20 Kem : Silent Act Profit €5

System F Max Price 7.0

3:25 Nott : Bollin Dolly Profit €5

System A Max Price 7.0 Trial Only Loss -2.40 Points (8/10) after today

1:00 Chep : St Killians Run @ 4.1 Profit 0.95

12:50 Warw : Ready to Crown : 7.0 Profit 0.95

3:40 Warw : Ya I Know@ 6.2 Profit 0.95

12:10 Nott : Silk Galley @ 7.0 Profit 0.95

Nov 03 - Profit €17

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 06:35:00 +0000

The big thing that is continually referred to is the concept of laying at value prices. If horses are consistently laid at pries that are less than their chances of winning then the layer will profit. The problem s defining what constitutes value, is it dependent on their past form or just their price at the race start. The usual indicators of from course , distance etc just don't seem to do it for me so maybe another approach should be taken . I think I may mess about with some trial selections that indicate the relevance of the "value" concept.

System A Max Price 4.5

2:40 Cat : Absa Lute Profit €5

3:30 Exe : Sunnyhillyboy Profit €5

3:50 Kem : Bab Al Salaam Loss €8

4:50 Kemp : Banda Sea Profit €5

System F Max Price 7.0 Trial Only

2:20 Kemp : Femme De Fer Profit €5

3:10 Catt : Grissom Profit €5

System A Max Price 7.0 Trial Only Loss 6.2 Points (4/6)

2:40 Catt : Godfrey Street @ 6.8 Profit 0.95

3:10 Catt : Lordship @ 4.7 Profit 0.95

3:40 Catt : Cotillion @ 4.3 Profit 0.95

4:10 Catt Royal Trooper @ 6.6 - Loss -5.6

3:00 Exe : Oh Crick @ 5.7 Profit 0.95

2:50 Kem : Malaproposm @ 6.4 Non Runner

5:20 Kem : Dinner Date @ 5.4 - Loss -4.4

Nov 2 - Profit €10

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 06:41:00 +0000

Havent timetoupdate yesterday but all 3 horses won, for fucks sake, what a genius!

System A Max Price 4.5

12:40 Plum : What Luck Profit €5

2:55 Plum : Hectors House Profit €5

System F Max Price 7.0

Nothing today

Nov 1 - Loss €47

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 08:50:00 +0000

My head is exploding, cider and whiskey, when will I learn?

9 of 10 right yesterday but fair along never looked like losing. Liverpool were shocking again, OK Beintez , we know you want to manage Real Madrid, but getting sacked at Liverpool is probably not the best way to do it. Take off Torres and that little Israeli prick (can't spell his name with a hangover) just when you think we're back in the game, how these people are revered as genius' (what the fuck is the plural for genius) is beyond me. I am now beginning to hate Chelsea fans also. Was at a funeral the other day and someone in the family of the deceased sang a sad old song (all Irish songs are sad because of our history of oppression by foreign invaders, some of them as recent as 800 years ago), anyway, the tradition is that everyone present sings a song, and what did dickhead sing ? It was a fucking Chelsea football song, the most embarrassing moment of the last ten years. Dickhead, dickhead, dickhead!!!

System A selection Max price 4.5

12:50 Ling : Farncombe Loss €13

2:30 Ling : King Supreme Loss €15

System F selection Max price 4.5

2:30 Ling Ethics Girl : Profit €5

4:10 Ling : Miss Sophisticat Loss €24

31 Oct - Profit €39

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 08:04:00 +0000

System A Lays Max Price 4.5

12:45 Asc : Alaghiraar * Profit €5

1:35 Naas : Made in Taipan* Profit €5

1:45 Weth: Nikos Extra* Profit €5

2:55 Weth : Tamirindbleu Profit €5

3:25 Weth : Fair Along Loss €11

3:45 Newm : Saphiras Fire* Profit €5

4:35 Kem : Wanchai Whisper* Profit €5

System F Lays Max Price 7.0

1:40 Ayr : Silver Rime** Profit €5

2:45 Ayr : Grissom** Profit €5

3:45 Newm : Prince Seigfried Profit €5

6:05 Kemp : Samaaha Profit €5

May have some more for Wolv / Kempt Later - Nothing for Tonight

30 Oct - Loss €12

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 05:53:00 +0000

Hi ho, hi ho, off to work I go, love my job to bits, wish I could give this up and work full time , oops, wrong way round ?

System A Lays Max Price 4.5

2:15 Uttox : Finney Loss €13

3:15 Weth : Trumpstoo Profit €5

3:35 Newm : Himilaya Profit €5

System F Lays Max Price 7.0

No Selections

Too Early for Evening meeting Yet, No Markets

System A Lays Max Price 4.5
6:50 Wolv : Aquihaar Loss €19
9:00 Dund : Dazzle Dancer Profit €5
System F Lays Max Price 7.0
9:20 Wolv : Miss Eze Profit €5

29 Oct - Profit €30

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 05:43:00 +0000

Into work eary, 'cos I love work, my dedication is boundless.

System A Lays Max Price 4.5

1:30 Newc : Border Reiver - Profit €5

2:40 Ling : Apple Charlotte - Profit €5

2:50 Strat : Present Gale - Profit €5

3:00 Newc : Reckless Venture - Profit €5

System F Lays Max Price 7.0

2:10 Ling : Rosika - Profit €5

4:10 Ling : Spirit of Sharjah - Profit €5

Too Early for Wolverhampton Yet, No Markets- No Qualifiers

28 Oct - Loss €22

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 06:45:00 +0000

I'm still trying to figure out why I dumped all the original selection methods. Anyway, I've\dug them up and realised their strike rate was far in excess of anything I've "developed", I'll mess around with €5.40 Lays for a while before deciding whether to risk more and lodge some cash.

Selection type A

1:15 Punch : Sweeps Hill - Loss €7

2:55 Hay : TXALAR - Loss €15

3:40 Muss : Traphalgar Not Matched

5:50 Kem : My Flame Not Matched

Selection Type F

None Today : Still Working on the last few months unused selections to refine them.

Oct 27

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 06:56:00 +0000

Tipster Review
Lowlay and Martinsbetterbettingjustlay results from 01 Jan 09 to 21 October, of course I dumped them too soon as they have both had healthy profits since I stopped. Just one day I will get something right.
Below is a detailed analysis for both tipsters , it's my own ebook so it's safe

Weak Favourites Horses Minimum Odds 1.50 Max Odds 4.50

1:00 Catt

1:40 Yar

2:10 Yar

2:25 Punch

2:30 Catt

2:40 Yar

2:55 Punch

3:00 Catt

3:25 Punch

FFF Trial System Horses Minimum Odds 1.50 Max Odds 4.50

Profit +3.80 Points (4/4) before Today

No Selections

Weak Doggie Favourites Doggie - Max Price 3.0

No Selections

Oct 26

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 09:56:00 +0000

12:55 Leop

1:25 Leop

1:35 Gal

1:55 Leop

2:25 Leop

4:35 Gal

FFF Trial System Horses Minimum Odds 1.50 Max Odds 4.50

Profit +3.80 Points (4/4) before Today

3:40 Kempt : Leelu

Weak Doggie Favourites Doggie - Max Price 3.0

No Selections

Oct 25 - Profit €9

noreply@blogger.com (Average Guy) — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 13:25:00 +0000

Weak Favourites Horses Minimum Odds 1.50 Max Odds 4.50 - Profit €9 (3/4)

2:30 Gal - Profit €7

2:35 Tow-Loss €12

3:30 Gal- Profit €7

3:45 Tow - Not Matched

4:00 Gal- Not Matched

4:20 Tow- Not Matched

4:35 Gal- Profit €7

Weak Doggie Favourites Doggie - Max Price 3.0

Fuck The Dogs

FFF Trial System Horses Minimum Odds 1.50 Max Odds 4.50

Profit +3.80 Points (4/4) before Today

1:35 Aint : Knock Three Times - SP too High

1:55 Gal Gra Geal Mo Chroi - SP Too High

3:20 Wex Tiarella - SP Too High

Tipster Review

I have updated the Lowlay and Martinsbetterbettingjustlay results from 01 Jan 09 to 21 October, of course I dumped them too soon as they have both had healthy profits since I stopped. Just one day I will get something right.

Below is a detailed analysis for both tipsters , it's my own ebook so it's safe